Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has has important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
